The last decade has seen major changes in energy from the 1990s. The cost of most forms of energy has increased in real terms, security of supply has become an issue and environmental issues are a global concern.
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1990s
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2005
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2009
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Oil
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Long-term price below US$20 a barrel.
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Long-term price over US$60, spikes to US$100
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Spot price US$30-40 but futures over US$70, uncertain outlook
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Plentiful supply.
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Concerns about peak oil and security of supply.
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Concerns about adequate investment and future supply
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Gas
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Prices will fall.
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US prices over $6/mmbtu, rising Australian prices.
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US prices around US$5, rising Australian prices
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Security of supply taken for granted.
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Supply disruptions.
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Growing concern about security of supply in Europe and Asia
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Substantial stranded resources.
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Growing global trade in gas.
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Dash for Asia-Pacific gas resources
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Electricity
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Competitive reform to reduce prices.
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Concerns about black-outs and infrastructure investment.
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Major impacts from emissions trading
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| Climate Change |
Controversial
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Commitment to a need for action
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Major impacts on energy producers and users from emissions trading
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Renewables
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Minority interest
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Area of interest for mainstream investors
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Increasingly mandated by governments
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Uranium
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Little interest.
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Strong interest
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Strong interest
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For most of the decade energy prices (oil, gas and coal) were rising, costs were also rising and there was ample finance for a limited number of opportunities. Commodities and infrastructure also became increasingly important asset classes for professional investors.
The picture has changed again since late 2008. Spot energy prices have fallen. Finance is scarce and more expensive. Marginal projects are being deferred or cancelled.
At the same time the long-term pressures remain. The growth of Asia and the Middle East will continue to drive growing demand for energy, with pressures on prices, security of supply and the environment.
In this turbulent environment companies, investors and governments need:
- Robust and timely market data,
- Rigorous analysis to identify risks and opportunities, and
- Sound strategic advice.
EnergyQuest provides all three.
EnergyQuest also takes an integrated approach. Most energy issues have four dimensions:
- Economic growth: energy is a critical driver of economic growth and living standards.
- Energy security: governments, companies and customers want reliable and secure energy supplies.
- Environment and sustainability: Commitment to the need to reduce pollution and greenhouse emissions from fossil fuels and to develop sustainable energy sources.
- Equity: while the developed world has access to reliable power and motorized transport, 1.6 billion people in the world do not have access to electricity.
There are numerous trade-offs between these dimensions and no energy solution fits well with every dimension. We take an integrated approach to energy issues, taking account of the four dimensions.