The outlook for east coast gas over the next 20 years remains subject to considerable uncertainty. On the one hand, while LNG exports have increased, conditions for gas buyers have eased. The supply of domestic gas has increased and prices have fallen.
On the other hand, there are numerous delays to new supply projects. Development of the largest uncontracted reserves on the east coast, those held by Arrow Energy, has been further delayed. A development decision, was expected by the end of last year. The recent US-China trade deal, requiring China to import substantial volumes of US LNG, may impact on development by Arrow, which is 50% Chinese-owned. Timing of both the Victorian and NSW LNG import projects has been pushed back. Approval of Narrabri development in NSW was expected in Q1 this year but is now looking like later in the year.
To assess the implications of these developments, EnergyQuest has undertaken a detailed update of reserves, production costs and field production profiles for Queensland, Northern Territory, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, east coast demand, and the pricing outlook. The assessment is right up to date, based on data to the end of 2019.
Specific issues addressed are:
- What is the outlook for Arrow development and what if it is subject to further delays?
- What is the Narrabri production outlook and what if it is not approved?
- Could termination of the Victorian conventional drilling moratorium make a difference?
- Which LNG import projects are likely to be developed and within what time frame and how will they change the market?
- How robust are proven and probable reserves estimates to meet this demand?
- What are the likely 20-year production profiles for major fields and basins?
- What are the expected development costs for major fields and projects?
- What is future gas demand for the domestic market, and the LNG export projects?
- What is the gas price outlook for the east coast?
- What are the risks and game changers for the industry?
These findings will be released as a confidential multi-client report in March 2020. You can download further details here: