OGJ Australian gas reserve estimates too low

Each December the US Oil and Gas Journal publishes its estimates of global oil production for the current year and its estimate of proven oil and gas reserves for the start of the coming year.


The estimates are widely quoted. However they are released prior to the end-of-year announcements of reserves and production by the world’s major oil and gas companies. This makes them less reliable than the BP estimates, which are published in June for the prior year.

They are also less reliable than would be expected for Australia. Australia is a minor player in global oil production so Australian oil estimates are not material for the global picture. However Australia is incresingly important as a gas supplier and the OGJ estimates of Australian gas reserves are all over the place. For January 2011 they estimated 1P of 110 Tcf, broadly consistent with other estimates. However for 2012 they slashed this to 27.8 Tcf without explanation. The latest estimate (January 2013) is 43 Tcf. Again, no explanation for the change from 2011 and 2012 and difficult to understand with three operating LNG projests and seven under construction.