Information about EnergyQuest’s ‘LNG and energy essentials’ report is available by clicking here.
EnergyQuest’s 2026 West Coast Gas Outlook was released this month and indicates that more investment in supply will be needed over the next decade or Western Australia’s (WA’s) will look more like the past when significantly more of the state’s domestic supply came from LNG projects, specifically the North West Shelf.
From 2003 to 2016 the North West Shelf was WA’s only LNG project and supplied more than 15% of LNG volumes to the domestic market. The addition of the Gorgon, Wheatstone, and Pluto projects in the past decade materially expanded LNG export volumes meaning that, in conjunction with significant additional supply from WA’s domestic only projects (e.g. Macedon, Varanus Island), a lower proportion of LNG volumes were needed to satisfy domestic demand.
Since 2016, the proportion of LNG export volumes supplied to the domestic market by all WA LNG projects has been less than 15% since 2016, and that was sufficient for the domestic market.
At the highest level there are two factors that may change this picture:
- WA domestic gas demand is, unlike the east coast, expected to grow in coming years with new industrial demand (notably from Perdaman Urea which will add more than 10% to state demand) and then is likely to be sustained for at least the coming decade
- Supply from existing domestic only projects is declining, and in the 2030s supply from some of WA’s LNG projects also declines as reserves are depleted
The current outlook indicates that sustained demand combined with declining supply creates a growing market shortfall in the 2030s.
There are growth options for WA supply that can change the outlook. For example, Hancock’s Project Belisama is a new addition to our Base Case forecast in the West Coast Gas Outlook 2026 and would add 210 TJ/d of additional supply capacity to the domestic market, approximately 19% of total demand. More supply developments will be needed to address the forecast supply gas in the 2030s.
Monthly LNG statistical summary
Based on shipping data, EnergyQuest estimates that Australia exported 7.12 Mt of LNG in July, totalling 102 cargoes. This represented an increase of 4.8% from June, when exports totalled 6.79 Mt from 98 cargoes. When annualised, July’s exports represent 83.8 Mtpa, equivalent to 97.4% of Australia’s total nameplate capacity of 86.0 Mtpa.
EnergyQuest estimates Australian LNG export revenue of $7.45 billion in July – up by $2.64 billion (+55%) from $4.81 billion in June.
The July result was higher, up by $2.24 billion (+43%) from July 2025’s $5.21 billion. This was due to higher average prices along with higher volumes, up by 0.49 Mt (+7%), as total exports during July 2025 were 6.63 Mt.
Combined, the five WA projects (NWS, Pluto, Gorgon, Prelude, and Wheatstone) shipped 57 cargoes totalling 4.07 Mt of LNG during July, two cargoes for 0.22 Mt more than they exported during June, when they shipped 55 cargoes for 3.85 Mt. The July result was also up by one cargo for 0.10 Mt compared to July 2025 when they shipped 56 cargoes for 3.97 Mt, during which time Gorgon had one train offline for maintenance in the early part of July 2025 and only shipped 18 cargoes.
The Northern Territory (NT) shipped 14 cargoes for 1.05 Mt during July – steady compared to the 14 cargoes for 1.05 Mt it shipped during June and up by two cargoes and 0.18 Mt on the 12 cargoes Ichthys shipped for 0.87 Mt during July 2025, when Darwin LNG was not operational.
The three Queensland projects shipped 31 cargoes for 1.99 Mt in July, two more cargoes for 0.10 Mt compared to the projects shipping 29 cargoes for 1.89 Mt during June and three more cargoes for the 28 cargoes for 1.79 Mt they shipped in July 2025 when APLNG undertook scheduled maintenance with the equivalent of one train being offline for two weeks in July 2025.