Information about EnergyQuest’s ‘LNG and energy essentials’ report is available by clicking here.
| Where to from here for Australia’s large industrial gas users? If, like us, you are looking at gas demand forecasts on a regular basis, you have likely seen that demand from industrial users is typically forecast to be flat for the next 20 years. Industrial demand, however, has fallen significantly over the past decade (in the east coast market) – down 27% from 2014 to 2024. Industrial demand is difficult to forecast. Energy and gas prices have been rising, which negatively impacts the economics of any business – particularly operations that use large volumes of energy, as many industrial operations do. At some point in the future any given facility is likely to become uneconomic, whether due to energy prices or otherwise, but the exact timing of when that might happen depends on many factors. It may be in the national interest for Australia to maintain the ability to produce and refine metals such as copper, aluminium, and zinc. There is certainly a good argument for doing so, given such commodities are essential to the Australian economy and will need to be imported if not produced in-country. In this month’s report we explore what all this might mean for Australia’s industrial base. Monthly LNG statistical summary Based on shipping data, EnergyQuest estimates that Australia exported 6.29 Mt of LNG in June 2025, totalling 89 cargoes. This was a decrease compared to May 2025, when Australia exported 6.40 Mt and 93 cargoes. When annualised, June’s exports represent 76.5 Mtpa, equivalent to 86.4% of total Australian nameplate capacity. EnergyQuest estimates that Australian LNG export revenue in June was $4.99 billion – slightly down on May’s $5.19 billion and marginally lower, by 1.3%, yoy from June 2024 ($5.06 billion). WA projects earned $2.70 billion in export revenue, Queensland projects earned $1.59 billion, and Northern Territory (NT) projects earned $0.71 billion. Over the past three months, WA shipments have been characterised by scheduled maintenance undertaken on Wheatstone, the North West Shelf and Gorgon. Consequently, production and shipping volumes have been impacted. In June 2025, five fewer cargoes were loaded in WA LNG ports compared to May 2025. As the cooler months approach, the three Queensland projects have taken the opportunity to commence planned maintenance with the QCLNG project having the equivalent of up to one train offline for approximately two weeks during May (and into June). In June, the GLNG project undertook planned maintenance with up to one train being offline for approximately three weeks, which carried over into the first week of July. Meanwhile, APLNG has maintenance scheduled for mid-to-late-July, with up to the equivalent of one train being offline for up to two weeks. Despite these planned maintenance schedules, the projects shipped 29 cargoes for a combined total of 2.0 Mt during June, higher than the 28 cargoes for 1.82 Mt shipped during May. During June 2025, the Ichthys project in NT, shipped 12 cargoes for 0.89 Mt compared to shipping 12 cargoes for 0.88 Mt in May, and 11 cargoes for 0.82 Mt during April. |