Information about EnergyQuest’s ‘LNG and energy essentials’ report is available by clicking here.
Conflicts near and far
Though recent conflict in the Middle East has highlighted Australia’s energy interdependence with the rest of the world, two recent publication releases remind us that this country’s primary energy challenge is domestic rather than international.
In this month’s LNG and energy essentials report we take a look at the Western Australia Electricity Statement of Opportunities (WA ESOO) and the National Electricity Market (NEM) Integrated System Plan, both published by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) in June. Each underlines a challenge: competing demands for what is, at least for now, scarce supply of committed future domestic gas against a backdrop of slower than assumed rollout of renewable capacity.
In Western Australia (WA), while AEMO forecasts a potential gas market shortfall in the 2030s in the absence of new domestic supply, the 2026 WA ESOO projects a stronger near-term electricity capacity outlook than it did a year earlier.
This is largely down to the projected rollout of new and expanded battery storage and generation facilities, together with an extension of existing coal-fired power generation. As a result, an expected peak-capacity shortfall of 1.04 GW in the 2028-29 capacity year, beginning on 1 October, has become an expected surplus of 347 MW.
The WA ESOO projects the state’s new development planning legislation, together with the support provided by the Australian Government’s Capacity Investment Scheme, will contribute to 889 MW of committed projects starting operations by 2028-29.
However, assumptions of quicker project delivery may run counter to WA’s typically slower timelines for renewables rollouts, including most grid connection processes. In its latest examination of grid operator Western Power’s operational performance, the WA Economic Regulation Authority in June reported little progress over the year to March in reducing average connection times for large customers.
Similar challenges and sensitivities to forecasts are pertinent to the NEM. AEMO in its ISP notes that in its Optimal Development Path it projects a rate of infrastructure build to 2030 faster than achieved to date – suggesting scope for upside in thermal energy demand in that period (and possibly beyond), if projected build rates do not eventuate. AEMO in its ISP notes that in its Optimal Development Path it projects a rate of infrastructure build to 2030 faster than achieved to date – suggesting scope for upside in thermal energy demand in that period (and possibly beyond), if projected build rates do not eventuate.
Monthly LNG statistical summary
Based on shipping data, EnergyQuest estimates that Australia exported 6.79 Mt of LNG in June 2026, totalling 98 cargoes. This represented an increase of 12.6% from May 2026, when exports totalled 6.03 Mt, for 88 cargoes. When annualised, June’s exports represent 82.6 Mtpa, equivalent to 96% of the total Australian nameplate capacity of 86.0 Mtpa.
EnergyQuest estimates Australian LNG export revenue of $4.68 billion in June 2026 – up by $0.79 billion (+20%) from $3.89 billion in May.
The June result was marginally down by $0.09 billion (-2%) from June 2025’s $4.77 billion. This was principally due to lower average prices being offset by higher volumes, which were up by 0.59 Mt (+10%) as total exports during June 2025 were 6.20 Mt.
Combined, the five WA projects (NWS, Pluto, Gorgon, Prelude, and Wheatstone) shipped 55 cargoes totalling 3.85 Mt of LNG during June, seven cargoes for 0.51 Mt more than they exported during May when they shipped 48 cargoes for 3.34 Mt. The June result was also up by seven cargoes for 0.45 Mt compared to June 2025 when they shipped 48 cargoes for 3.40 Mt.
Combined, the Ichthys LNG and the Darwin LNG project shipped 14 cargoes for 1.05 Mt during June – up by three cargoes and 0.22 Mt on the 11 cargoes for 0.83 Mt they shipped during May and by two cargoes and 0.16 Mt on the 12 cargoes they shipped for 0.89 Mt shipped during June 2025.
Combined, the three Queensland projects (APLNG, GLNG, QCLNG) shipped 29 cargoes for 1.89 Mt, identical in cargoes but marginally more in volume (+0.03 Mt) than in May, and identical in cargoes but marginally less in volume (-0.02 Mt) than in June 2025.