LNG and energy essentials – November 2025

Information about EnergyQuest’s ‘LNG and energy essentials’ report is available by clicking here.

 What difference does an election make?

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) published the draft 2026 Integrated System Plan (ISP) in December.

The ISP is a long and complicated document, but there is at least one key difference between the 2024 and the 2026 version that highlights some of AEMO’s forecasting challenges and how the ISP should be understood.

2024’s ISP said coal-fired power generation (CPG) was ‘rapidly’ retiring and would all be gone from the National Electricity Market (NEM) by 2034-35. The 2024 edition states that, while retirements had been announced for about half the CPG fleet by 2035 and the remaining plants by 2051 ‘to meet government policy objectives, the ISP forecasts that the remaining coal fleet will close two to three times faster than those announcements’.

The 2026 ISP has a very different conclusion, stating that CPG is ‘steadily’ retiring and, while two thirds will be gone by 2035, the remainder would continue to 2049.

The main reason for the difference in outcomes is CPG in Queensland and the reason for the change in Queensland CPG is there has been a change of government. The previous Labor government’s policy was to retire all CPG by 2035 while Queensland’s new Liberal National Party’s Energy Roadmap says that CPG will continue operating ‘as long as needed’.

The question of whether the change in Queensland’s policy, or indeed the policies of other jurisdictions, is a good or bad thing for consumer energy needs is left unanswered by the ISP: the ISP assumes that all committed government policy will be achieved, as AEMO is required to take that approach under the National Electricity Rules. Such an approach has its merits and provides some insight into the effect of government policy but avoids what may be an informative critique of whether those policies are optimal and realistic.

Monthly LNG statistical summary

Based on shipping data, EnergyQuest estimates that Australia exported 6.38 Mt of LNG in November 2025, totalling 92 cargoes. The November 2025 result is an increase compared to October 2025, when Australia exported 6.26 Mt also for 92 cargoes. When annualised, November’s exports represent 77.6 Mtpa, equivalent to 90.2% of the total Australian nameplate capacity of 86.0 Mtpa.

EnergyQuest estimates that Australian LNG export revenue in November 2025 was $4.82 billion, which was higher than the October result of $4.66 billion which was the second lowest monthly revenue since July 2021 when the monthly revenue was $4.32 billion. The lowest was in September 2025 when monthly revenue was $4.23 billion.

Combined, the five WA projects (NWS, Pluto, Gorgon, Prelude, and Wheatstone) shipped 52 cargoes for 3.70 Mt during November, slightly less than the 54 cargoes totalling 3.74 Mt in October and down compared to the 58 cargoes for 4.05 Mt in September. The November result also compares to the five projects shipping 53 cargoes for 3.73 Mt in August, shipping 56 cargoes for 3.97 Mt in July and 48 cargoes for 3.40 Mt in June.

During November, the Queensland projects shipped 31 cargoes for 2.00 Mt which was down compared to the projects shipping 33 cargoes for 2.14 Mt in October.

During November, Ichthys shipped nine cargoes for 0.68 Mt much higher than the five cargoes for 0.38 Mt it shipped in October