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| The world is in the midst of a major expansion of gas supply infrastructure A few years ago the International Energy Agency (IEA) started forecasting that a ‘supply glut’ in the global LNG market was coming, initially pinning 2025 as the year it would arrive. The glut isn’t here just yet as new supply projects were delayed, not an usual outcome in the context of large-scale construction, but it is still coming. In its just released 2025 World Energy Outlook the IEA forecasts that 300 Bcm of new annual LNG export capacity, representing a 50% increase in available global LNG supply, will come online between 2025-2030. That is a major increase by any measure. More than half of the increase comes from the US where LNG exporters have announced plans to more than double liquefaction capacity between 2025 and 2029, notwithstanding that the US is already the largest LNG exporter. Around a quarter of the increase is expected to come from Qatar as North Field expansion trains ramp up. As always, there are also risks to the forecast. A report from Bloomberg notes the LNG market risks a shortfall if Qatar’s expansion project ramp-up is slower than expected and Europe enforces a Russian LNG ban. However, a faster ramp-up of new Qatari supply and removal of US sanctions on Russia will exacerbate oversupply in the coming years. These are, however, risks related to timing and scale of oversupply and the expansion in capacity would still occur. It is not just LNG supply capacity that is expanding, globally there is more than 200,000 km of transmission pipelines under development, representing a nearly 20% expansion of the existing global network. China, Russia, India, the United States, and Brazil together account for nearly 60% of the total gas pipeline buildout. For comparison, Australia has around 42,000 km of natural gas transmission pipelines. The expansion of LNG supply capacity is perhaps not surprising given that the IEA expects growth in demand to continue, with a further 65 Bcm per year of new LNG export capacity needed by 2040. The pipeline expansion also makes sense given the need to move gas associated with the LNG capacity expansion, and also that the IEA’s Step Change scenario forecasts growing global demand for natural gas reaching 4,800 Bcm in 2035 and remaining at around that level through to 2050. To give some perspective to the increase in LNG supply capacity alone, in the five years to 2030 the world is expected to add LNG supply capacity equivalent to more than 2.5 times Australia’s total LNG exports in the past 12 months. If Australia is indeed ‘quietly quitting’ LNG, the world isn’t following us out the door. Monthly LNG statistical summary Based on shipping data, EnergyQuest estimates that Australia exported 6.26 Mt of LNG in October 2025, totalling 92 cargoes. The October 2025 result is an increase compared to September 2025, when Australia exported 5.94 Mt and 88 cargoes. When annualised, October’s exports represent 73.7 Mtpa, equivalent to 86% of the total Australian nameplate capacity of 86.0 Mtpa. EnergyQuest estimates that Australian LNG export revenue in October 2025 was $4.57 billion, which is the second lowest monthly revenue (September 2025 was $4.23 billion) since July 2021 when the monthly revenue was $4.31 billion, due to the combination of lower volumes, Brent oil prices and JKM spot prices. While the October result was higher from September’s $4.23 billion it was 18.3% lower yoy compared to October 2024 ($5.60 billion). Western Australia projects earned $2.73 billion in export revenue, Queensland projects earned $1.56 billion, and NT projects earned $0.28 billion. Combined, the five WA projects (NWS, Pluto, Gorgon, Prelude, and Wheatstone) shipped 54 cargoes totalling 3.74 Mt in October, compared to 58 cargoes for 4.05 Mt in September. The October result also compares to the five projects shipping 53 cargoes for 3.73 Mt in August, shipping 56 cargoes for 3.97 Mt in July and 48 cargoes for 3.40 Mt in June. During October, the three Queensland LNG projects shipped 33 cargoes for a combined total of 2.14 Mt compared to shipping 29 cargoes for 1.89 Mt in September. The October result also compares to the projects shipping 30 cargoes for a combined total of 1.94 Mt during August, shipping 28 cargoes for a combined total of 1.79 Mt during July and 29 cargoes for 1.91 Mt during June. Ichthys LNG operations in the NT recommenced in early October with the first lifting being on 9 October and the project shipped five cargoes for 0.38 Mt in October. |