Information about EnergyQuest’s ‘LNG and energy essentials’ report is available by clicking here.
| Muddling through With an uncertain industry strategic path, matched with a mixed bag of higher-risk supply options, the need to meet peak energy demand requirements, and government policy uncertainties, the industry outlook is one of ‘muddling through’. This was the conclusion in EnergyQuest’s recently published East Coast Gas Outlook 2025. Gas supply to the east coast and Northern Territory modelled has increased since last year’s East Coast Gas Outlook (ECGO) 2024. Gippsland production reprofiling has increased gas in the critical period from 2028 to 2032, and a higher but later contribution from Narrabri is modelled. Northern gas supply from Queensland and Beetaloo, based on performance to date and appraisal results, also added to gas supply. When the Queensland foundation LNG contracts come to an end around 2035/36, then enormous pressure can be expected from the government to make sure the Queensland coal seam gas production is prioritised to the domestic market. While this may solve any gas supply issues, it flips the balance of the industry on its head. We could then have too much gas and the net zero carbon world would only be 14 years away to 2050. Domestic demand is lower compared to ECGO 2024 by 35 to 56 PJ/a due to modelled extensions to coal-fired power generation lowering gas-fired power generation demand, and lower industrial demand. Increasing importance is being placed on having firm energy supply, and the role of GPG in meeting seasonal demand swings and backing up variable renewables like solar and wind. Monthly LNG statistical summary EnergyQuest estimates that Australian LNG export revenue in September 2025 was $4.27 billion which is the lowest monthly revenue since June 2021 due to the combination of lower volumes, Brent oil prices and JKM spot prices. Based on shipping data, EnergyQuest estimates that Australia exported 5.94 Mt of LNG in September 2025, totalling 87 cargoes. This was the lowest monthly total of LNG exports since June 2021 when 5.82 Mt was exported, it was also a decrease compared to August 2025, when Australia exported 6.35 Mt and 92 cargoes. When annualised, August’s exports represent 72.3 Mtpa, equivalent to 84% of total Australian nameplate capacity of 86.0 Mtpa. Over the autumn and winter months, WA shipments have been affected by scheduled maintenance: Wheatstone in late April 2025 (which reduced production and shipping from the project), the North West Shelf project during May (with up to one train at the project offline throughout May and into June, and Gorgon during June and into July (with the equivalent of one train offline). The Queensland Curtis LNG (QCLNG) project had the equivalent of up to one train offline for approximately two weeks during May and June. Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) undertook scheduled maintenance during July with up to the equivalent of one train being offline for up to approximately two weeks during the month, as well as in September, when it had the equivalent of half a train off-line for two weeks. In June, the Gladstone LNG (GLNG) project undertook planned maintenance with up to one train being offline for approximately three weeks, which carried over into the first week of July. Further, GLNG had a follow-up planned maintenance period during August, which continued through most of September with up to the equivalent of half an LNG train being offline. |