Information about EnergyQuest’s ‘LNG and energy essentials’ report is available by clicking here.
| The only way is up While the US increased tariffs substantially on 2 April 2025, an earlier salvo in the trade war with China came on 4 February this year when the US Government imposed an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese imports into the US. China responded with its own tariffs on US imports including a 15% tariff on US LNG, which has since risen to 125%; however, the imposition of a 15% tariff was enough to stop trade in LNG between the US and China with zero US LNG imports to China in March 2025. China’s overall demand for LNG in 2025 is significantly lower than previous years due to warmer weather, weaker industrial demand, higher domestic gas production, and increased pipeline gas imports. Currently, there are 8.5 Mtpa of contracted LNG to China from the US, with terms of up to 25 years and many more years to run. Added to those volumes are 11.5 Mtpa of contracted LNG from US LNG projects under construction, with each new contract set to last 20 years, and a further 7.1 Mtpa of planned LNG capacity. To put that into perspective, contracted LNG supply from the US to China is equivalent to a third of total LNG exports from Australia in calendar year 2024. Given that zero LNG was imported from the US into China in March, the only way for this LNG trade is up. Monthly statistical summary EnergyQuest estimates that Australia exported 6.90 Mt of LNG in April 2025, totalling 98 cargoes. This is a decrease compared to March 2025, when Australia exported 7.11 Mt and 101 cargoes. When annualised, April’s exports represent 83.9 Mtpa, equivalent to 94.7% of total Australian nameplate capacity. EnergyQuest estimates that Australian LNG export revenue in April was $5.43 billion – lower than March’s $5.58 billion, but down by only 0.5% year-on-year from April 2024 ($5.46 billion). WA projects earned $3.13 billion in export revenue, Queensland projects earned $1.66 billion, and Northern Territory projects earned $0.64 billion. Combined, the five WA projects (NWS, Pluto, Gorgon, Prelude, and Wheatstone) shipped 56 cargoes during April for 3.97 Mt, compared to 59 cargoes for 4.17 Mt in March, 48 cargoes for 3.38 Mt in February, 54 cargoes for 3.80 Mt in January, 58 cargoes for 4.11 Mt in December, and 56 cargoes for 3.92 Mt in November. During April 2025, Queensland’s three Gladstone projects shipped 31 cargoes for a combined total of 2.11 Mt, down on the 33 cargoes for 2.26 Mt shipped during March. The April liftings were, however, much higher than February’s total of 29 cargoes for 1.95 Mt. The NT (Ichthys only) shipped 11 cargoes for 0.82 Mt in April 2025, compared to nine cargoes for 0.68 Mt in March and 10 cargoes for 0.74 Mt in February. |