Information about EnergyQuest’s ‘LNG and energy essentials’ report is available by clicking here.
International and east coast gas markets track different paths
The rolling pressure on international gas markets is clearly not evident in Australian gas market dynamics, even as winter begins in the southern states.
In this month’s LNG and energy essentials report we take a look at the current international gas price crisis and Australian gas price non-crisis. The data helps remind us that domestic factors are more important for short-term domestic gas prices than international developments.
Prices at the Wallumbilla Gas Supply Hub (WGSH) have continued to fall since March, even as expected colder weather in southern Australia approached. WGSH prices were well below $8.00/GJ during the second week in June.
Aside from two lower-priced days on 10-11 March 2026, this is the lowest that closing WGSH prices have been since October 2023, and the lowest for any winter (June, July, August) since 2020. This is a somewhat remarkable event; yet it has attracted little public discourse.
At the opposite extreme, the average front-month JKM prices in May (June/July delivery) were at US$15.53/MMBtu (A$23.03/GJ). This was the second-highest monthly average since February 2023, in the aftermath of Russia cutting most of its supply to Europe, and forcing Europe to turn more strongly to the LNG market.
In this international crisis, it is the turn of Asian markets with sufficient financial firepower and the need, to turn to the spot market and alternative LNG suppliers – some (Taiwan, Korea) have stepped up.
In April 2026, the US supplied 45% of Taiwan’s LNG – a four-fold increase, knocking Australia down to second place at 42%.
Strikingly, the JKM futures curve continues to discount the chance of the Middle East conflict leading to a permanent reduction in the promised global over-supply, initially expected starting 2027.
Monthly LNG statistical summary
Based on shipping data, EnergyQuest estimates that Australia exported 5.69 Mt of LNG in May 2026, totalling 88 cargoes. This represented a decrease of 12.7% from April 2026, when exports totalled 6.51 Mt, for 94 cargoes. When annualised, May’s exports represent 67.0 Mtpa, equivalent to 78% of the total Australian nameplate capacity of 86.0 Mtpa.
EnergyQuest estimates Australian LNG export revenue of $4.02 billion in May 2026 – down by $0.44 billion (-10%) from $4.46 billion in April.
The May result was also down by $1.08 billion (-21%) from May 2025’s $5.10 billion. This was principally due to lower average prices as well as lower volumes, which were down by 0.73 Mt (-11%) as total exports during May 2025 were 6.41 Mt.
Combined, the five WA projects (NWS, Pluto, Gorgon, Prelude, and Wheatstone) shipped 48 cargoes totalling 3.34 Mt of LNG during May, one cargo for 0.14 Mt less than they exported during April when they shipped 49 cargoes for 3.47 Mt. The May result was also down by five cargoes compared to May 2025 when they shipped 53 cargoes for 3.72 Mt
Ichthys LNG and the Darwin LNG projects shipped a total of 11 cargoes for 0.83 Mt during May – down from the 12 cargoes for 0.91 Mt they (Ichthys only) shipped during April and one cargo less than the 12 cargoes shipped for 0.88 Mt during May 2025.
The three Queensland projects shipped a total of 29 cargoes for 1.86 Mt, down by four cargoes for 0.27 Mt compared to shipping 33 cargoes for 2.13 Mt in April but up by one cargo from 28 cargoes for 1.82 Mt in May 2025.