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| Would WA’s domestic gas reservation work on the east coast? With the Australian Government currently considering a domestic gas reservation for the east coast market it is not uncommon for comparisons to be made between arrangements in the west coast market and what might be done in the east. WA has, of course, had an official domestic gas policy in place since 2006 that – notionally at least – requires 15% of LNG volumes to be reserved for the domestic market. However, going back to the 1970s WA’s approval of the North West Shelf project included obligations for the State to invest in domestic gas infrastructure including the Dampier-Bunbury Pipeline and underwrite the purchase of domestic gas over 20 years, a kind of reverse domestic gas reservation if you will. WA’s domestic gas policy has historically been successful in achieving increased supply and lower gas prices but can’t easily be lifted up and dropped into the east coast market in the absence of new LNG projects in the east. And, though WA’s policy may not be as successful in the future with the outlook for the domestic gas market deteriorating and, in some respects, showing some similarities with the outlook for the east coast market. We cover the outlook for WA in detail in our annual West Coast Gas Outlook which has just been released. We will be watching with interest what policies may arise from the Australian Government’s consideration of an east coast gas reservation, but solving potential gas shortfalls by regulation is unlikely to be easy. Monthly LNG statistical summary Based on shipping data, EnergyQuest estimates that Australia exported 6.63 Mt of LNG in July 2025, totalling 96 cargoes. This was an increase compared to June 2025, when Australia exported 6.20 Mt and 89 cargoes. When annualised, July’s exports represent 78.1 Mtpa, equivalent to 90.8% of total Australian nameplate capacity of 86.0 Mtpa. EnergyQuest estimates that Australian LNG export revenue in July was $5.11 billion – up on June’s $4.84 billion and marginally lower, by 1.5%, yoy from July 2024 ($5.19 billion). WA projects earned $3.06 billion in export revenue, Queensland projects earned $1.38 billion, and Northern Territory projects earned $0.67 billion. Over the past four months, WA shipments have been characterised by scheduled maintenance undertaken on Wheatstone in late April 2025 (which reduced production and shipping from the project), the North West Shelf (NWS) project during May (with up to one train at the project offline throughout the month) and into June, and Gorgon during June and into July (with the equivalent of one train offline). Consequently, production and shipping volumes have been impacted over the last four months. There is also further maintenance planned at NWS during late August and into September with the equivalent of one LNG train being planned to be offline during this period. As the cooler months approach, the three Queensland projects take the opportunity to undertake planned annual maintenance with the QCLNG project having the equivalent of up to one train offline for approximately two weeks during May (and into June). In June, the GLNG project undertook planned maintenance with up to one train being offline for approximately three weeks, which carried over into the first week of July. Further, APLNG undertook scheduled maintenance scheduled during July with up to the equivalent of one train being offline for up to approximately two weeks during the month. Despite these planned maintenance schedules, the projects shipped 28 cargoes for a combined total of 1.79 Mt during July down just one cargo compared to shipping 29 cargoes for 1.91 Mt during June. The July cargo count was the same as May when 28 cargoes for 1.82 Mt were shipped but shipments during these months were down (due to planned maintenance outages) on the higher numbers shipped in the early part of the year, such as in April when 31 cargoes for 2.01 Mt were shipped. During July 2025, the NT (Ichthys only) shipped 12 cargoes for 0.87 Mt which was very consistent with the project shipping 12 cargoes for 0.89 Mt in June and shipping 12 cargoes for 0.88 Mt in May, compared to shipping 11 cargoes for 0.82 Mt during April. |