Information about EnergyQuest’s ‘LNG and energy essentials’ report is available by clicking here.
Gas reservation Bill: little changed, but not unchanged
Last month we discussed the exposure draft legislation for the new Australian Domestic Gas Reservation Scheme. A month later, the Bill is before Parliament, and not much has changed.
The 20% cap, the 90% annual supply requirement and the 1 January 2028 start for licences and the supply obligation are all unchanged. However, the Act itself will now commence by 1 July 2027, rather than 1 January 2027 as in the exposure draft. Each year, by 30 June, the AER will set the supply target for each market and each exporter’s share for the following calendar year, and it will now also publish forecasts for the next four years. The Minister can still reduce the 20% for a market that is well supplied, but must now first consult any state with its own reservation policy, which in practice means WA’s 15% policy. The deadline for that decision has moved from 1 August to the same 30 June date.
The conditions for relief for existing LNG contracts and infrastructure constraints have also been tightened in key respects. The Minister must now consider whether an exporter could meet its LNG contracts with cargoes bought on international markets, and contracts renewed or extended after 22 December 2025 no longer qualify for relief. This is likely to cause consternation among some LNG producers, and among LNG buyers concerned that they will receive the volumes they have contracted. We expect considerable debate before the Bill becomes law.
Beetaloo: it takes years to become an overnight success
In Observations this month, the LNG report takes a look at the Beetaloo Sub-basin, where gas from Tamboran’s Shenandoah South pilot began flowing into the NT network in September.
These are the basin’s first commercial sales – an overnight success more than a decade in the making! The resource potential is no longer seriously in doubt, but a big resource is not the same as a commercial one.
We look at the technical, commercial, policy and path-to-market challenges still ahead, the key players and what drives them, and the competing pull of NT LNG and the east coast.
So will the east coast market see any of this gas and, if so, when?
Monthly LNG statistical summary
Based on shipping data, EnergyQuest estimates that Australia exported 6.77 Mt of LNG in September, totalling 98 cargoes (Figure 14). This was lower than August, when exports totalled 7.10 Mt from 102 cargoes. When annualised, September’s exports represent 82.4 Mtpa, equivalent to 95.8% of Australia’s total nameplate capacity of 86.0 Mtpa.
EnergyQuest estimates Australian LNG export revenue of $6.09 billion in September – down by $0.18 billion (-3%) from $6.27 billion reported by the ABS for August.
The September result was up by $1.74 billion (+40%) from September 2025’s $4.32 billion. This was due to higher average prices along with higher volumes, which were up by 0.83 Mt (+14%), as total exports during September 2025 were 5.94 Mt.
Combined, the five WA projects (NWS, Pluto, Gorgon, Prelude and Wheatstone) shipped 53 cargoes totalling 3.75 Mt of LNG during September, three cargoes for 0.22 Mt less than they exported during August, when they shipped 56 cargoes for 3.97 Mt. The September result was also down by five cargoes for 0.30 Mt compared to September 2025, when they shipped 58 cargoes for 4.05 Mt.
The NT shipped 12 cargoes for 0.90 Mt during September – down from the 16 cargoes for 1.18 Mt it shipped during August. Neither Ichthys nor Darwin LNG shipped in September 2025, as Ichthys was undertaking major maintenance and Darwin LNG was not operational.
The three Queensland projects shipped 33 cargoes for 2.13 Mt in September, three cargoes for 0.18 Mt more than the 30 cargoes for 1.95 Mt they shipped during August, and up by four cargoes for 0.24 Mt compared to the 29 cargoes for 1.89 Mt they shipped in September 2025.