*** NEW REPORT ***
Overview:
EnergyQuest has 21 years of experience in energy analysis and observations of the Australian gas industry. Usually, we can see a reasonably clear direction and a common purpose in providing natural gas to markets.
Last year’s East Coast Gas Outlook, found an industry somewhat battered and bruised without a clear path forward, and at best just ‘muddling through’. We are still muddling through, but this year the focus has shifted unequivocally to energy security. To address this the Australian Government has tabled a Domestic Gas Reservation Bill – a sledgehammer action which we conclude is the wrong tool for the job.
The report forecasts and cost estimates are transparent and tested against real-world data. The team is available to work with clients to drill down into the data and test assumptions.
In Chapters 1 to 3, we provide detailed bottom-up analysis of the domestic gas supply situation. It is clear that the legacy fields in Gippsland, as well as the Otway and Cooper Basins, continue to decline, and northern gas is becoming more important.
Chapter 4 considers emerging options for more gas supply. Production in the Beetaloo, new positive signs for the Taroom Trough and an exploration drilling campaign in the Otway Basin are positive signs.
Chapter 6 looks at the falling domestic demand, and the contribution of each market segment to that fall. The impact of coal-fired power generation closures and the timing is considered in the gas profiles.
The carbon impact of the gas outlook is considered in Chapter 8. Using our detailed production profiles, Scope 1 and 2 emissions are estimated. This with the estimated costs of carbon are important considerations for long-term planning.
Chapter 9 looks at the Domestic Gas Reservation Bill and models the impact on gas supply to the east coast and Northern Territory. We analyse the impact of the Bill using our proprietary Topaz model for the east coast and Northern Territory, which looks at the supply and demand picture on a monthly basis to 2050. The monthly insights from Topaz show that the Domestic Gas Reservation Bill does not address the real issues of meeting peak and seasonal swing demand.
Chapter 10 is where the demand and supply profiles come together, and we discuss where additional gas is required and options for accessing it.
Gas prices with five scenarios by each of the four gas hubs are explored in Chapter 11. The trend is lower than last year, but variations are relatively wide.
With all this uncertainty, we identify signposts in Chapter 12, to watch out for on the journey. This will help with further scenario modelling by users of this report.
Scope and approach:
Like all EnergyQuest reports, this is an independent report. EnergyQuest does not have any commercial or political agendas to push. We are energy analysts not advocates. Nor does the report make any heroic assumptions about how the current energy system might be or should be transformed. Rather the report projects future gas demand and supply given demand trends and the current resource base.
Report details:
The report is provided in a PDF format with 384 pages of analysis. The analysis is supported by an Excel file with 71 worksheets of detailed models and data. High resolution copies of maps are available upon request.