A new report released by independent energy consultancy EnergyQuest, West Coast Gas Outlook 2025 – The market sends a message, shows that while Western Australia (WA) has historically been well supplied with low price gas, secure supply is no longer assured over the coming decade and getting through forecast shortfalls will come at a cost.
“The West Coast Gas Outlook 2025 shows that the market is sending a message – a likelihood of shortfalls, and fewer supply options means higher prices. There is enough gas in the market now and for the next few years, but then the market becomes tight, followed by increasing shortfalls through the 2030s. The outlook for strong demand and not enough growth in supply is translating into prices above the level that historic market fundamentals would suggest,” EnergyQuest Chief Executive Officer, Rick Wilkinson said.
“WA needs some big solutions to fix what may become a big problem. WA has a large, gas-using industrial base. Decarbonisation is an economy wide goal but gas users in mining, alumina, ammonia, and urea are unlikely to have any alternative to ongoing natural gas use for at least the next decade. And, for some gas users, the availability of natural gas is the key to reducing emissions over the medium term. WA will need new gas supplies brought to market to maintain its industrial base into the future,” Mr Wilkinson said.
“The Scarborough project is due to add supply from 2026 but most of that supply is already contracted and will be matched by increased demand. The Perth Basin remains important but has seen some disappointing results in recent years. WA will need something big to meet demand into the 2030s. The Browse project and Dorado are both in that category but are yet to be sanctioned. If new supply does not come online WA would need to rely even more on existing LNG projects, with potential negative flow on effects for investor sentiment”, Mr Wilkinson said.
“WA still has the benefit of time, but the problem has moved a year closer and isn’t going away. Something will need to change if WA is to avoid the market disruptions seen in the east coast in recent years,” Mr Wilkinson said.
The West Coast Gas Outlook 2025 includes updated supply, demand, and price forecasts to 2050. This longer-term view indicates the structural shortfall from 2028 could become substantial in coming decades. Aggressive assumptions are required to significantly reduce gas demand by 2050, and if carbon capture and storage is adopted by WA’s large gas users, demand will remain resilient.
The 238-page report is the leading energy consultancy’s latest annual, in-depth analysis of the long-term outlook for the west coast gas market, compiled by a multidisciplinary team of experienced energy professionals: geologists, petroleum engineers and gas marketers.
About EnergyQuest
EnergyQuest is an Australian-based independent energy consultancy that specialises in business intelligence and strategic advice for companies and governments, with a focus on oil, gas, electricity and the energy transition.
Media contacts:
| Rick Wilkinson Chief Executive Officer Tel: 0417 852 779 Email: rwilkinson@energyquest.com.au | Matt Paull Head of Consulting Tel: 0400 359 400 Email: mpaull@energyquest.com.au |
Information about the West Coast Gas Outlook 2025 is available by clicking here.