A new report released by independent energy consultancy EnergyQuest, West Coast Gas Outlook 2026 – Back to the future, shows that the Western Australia (WA) domestic gas market may return to its roots where LNG projects supplied a higher proportion of export volumes to the domestic market.
‘The West Coast Gas Outlook 2026 shows that increasing and sustained demand combined with declining supply from domestic only gas projects create growing potential supply shortfalls. WA’s domestic gas reservation policy has worked to date as ongoing LNG project development meant there has been new gas to reserve. More new domestic projects, such as Project Belisama, or new LNG projects, such as Browse, will be needed or WA’s existing LNG projects may need to increase supply to the domestic market to avoid shortfalls,’ Mr Paull, Head of Consulting said.
WA’s LNG projects have for a long time played a major role in providing a secure and relatively low-cost supply of gas to WA’s large industrial gas users. From 2003 to 2016, the North West Shelf project supplied more than 15% of LNG volumes to the domestic market and over the past 20 years supply from LNG projects has accounted for more than half of WA’s domestic supply.
‘On the current trajectory, WA’s future gas market will start to look like it was a decade ago. That future is not far off and, without further supply development, we expect more than 15% of LNG export volumes will need to be supplied to the domestic market in the 2030s’ Mr Paull said.
‘WA gas prices are less likely to return to historical levels. Future market uncertainty creates a premium on security of longer-term supply. We expect WA domestic prices will remain elevated, albeit still at levels that are low by Australian and international standards,’ Mr Paull said.
There have been some positive developments in WA gas supply in the past 12 months. The North West Shelf Project was approved to operate until 2070, though there are ongoing legal challenges. Greater Stage 3 reached FID which will extend the plateau of Gorgon and with it the availability of gas for the domestic market. Hancock’s Belisama has progressed with supply committed to the domestic market. The Scarborough project is nearing completion, and there are indications that a decision on environmental approvals for Browse may be made by the end of 2026.
‘Maintaining the momentum in supply developments over the next decade will be important. WA has a gas-intensive economy and WA’s large gas users are unlikely to have commercially viable, lower emissions alternatives to natural gas available at a large scale over the next decade. WA’s industrial and mining base will continue to need gas for some time to come,’ Mr Paull said.
The West Coast Gas Outlook 2026 includes updated supply, demand, and price forecasts to 2050. This longer-term view indicates the structural shortfall from 2028 could become substantial in coming decades. Demand from gas-fired power generation remains a key uncertainty for the market and will depend on the rate of growth in renewable generation and government policy to close coal-fired power generation.
The 274-page report is the leading energy consultancy’s latest annual, in-depth analysis of the long-term outlook for the west coast gas market, compiled by a multidisciplinary team of experienced energy professionals: geologists, petroleum engineers and gas marketers.
About EnergyQuest
EnergyQuest is an Australian-based independent energy consultancy that specialises in business intelligence and strategic advice for companies and governments, with a focus on oil, gas, electricity and the energy transition.
Media contacts:
| Rick Wilkinson Chief Executive Officer Tel: 0417 852 779 Email: rwilkinson@energyquest.com.au | Matt Paull Head of Consulting Tel: 0400 359 400 Email: mpaull@energyquest.com.au |
Information about the West Coast Gas Outlook 2025 is available by clicking here.