EnergyQuest October 2019 LNG Report

EnergyQuest has just released its October 2019 LNG Report. Some of the highlights are:

  • Australian LNG shipments have not been affected yet by the surplus of LNG globally.  Total Australian LNG shipments in October were 6.6 million tonnes (Mt) (97 cargoes), higher than 6.2 Mt (91 cargoes) in September.
  • Australia’s October shipments were 77.8 Mtpa on an annualised basis, above Qatar’s nameplate capacity of 77 Mtpa. In the 10 months to the end of October Australian projects shipped 63.4 Mt. We expect that total Australian shipments for 2019 will be around 75 Mt, just behind Qatar on an annual basis.
  • Average capacity utilisation was up in October due to the NWS returning to normal rates of production.  Other projects were all performing well.
  • West coast LNG shipments were up by 5 cargoes in October compared with September, primarily due to the North West Shelf (NWS) (+7) returning to normal production rates.  A number of spot cargoes have become available from west coast projects for October and November loading.
  • East coast LNG shipments were up by 1 cargo in October compared with September.  Spot cargoes were available for October loading from APLNG and GLNG.
  • Prices being earned by Australian LNG projects remain nearly twice spot prices. Average prices realised in Q3 ranged from US$8.70 to US$10.04/MMBtu compared with prices for spot cargoes of US$5-$6/MMBtu.
  • Conditions remained tight in the east coast gas market in October. With higher LNG exports and good production, the producers produced a larger surplus of 5.3 PJ above exports in October, compared with 3.3 PJ in September. Queensland exports to the southern states were significantly reduced (1.7 PJ in October compared with 4.8 PJ in September), and production from Moomba and offshore Victoria was down by 2.7 PJ compared with August.
  • East coast short-term gas prices were higher than those in August but lower than August 2018. East coast gas-fired generation was up by 80% on a year earlier.

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