Overview:
EnergyQuest has 20 years of experience in energy analysis and observations of the Australian gas industry. Usually, we can see a reasonably clear direction and a common purpose in providing natural gas to markets. In this year’s East Coast Gas Outlook, we find an industry somewhat battered and bruised without a clear path forward, and at best just ‘muddling through’.
We have continued to build our Topaz model for the east coast and Northern Territory, which looks at the supply and demand picture on a monthly basis to 2050. This give us insights on not just how much gas is required, but when. The ability to meet demand energy peaks is of increasing importance to the energy mix as we move to a low-carbon future, and Topaz models that perspective.
In Chapters 1 to 3, we provide detailed bottom-up analysis of the domestic gas supply situation. It is clear that the legacy fields in Gippsland, as well as the Otway and Cooper Basins, continue to decline, but some recent changes and supply options have bought some more time.
Chapter 4 considers emerging options for more gas supply. The start of pilot well production in the Beetaloo and an exploration drilling campaign in the Otway Basin are positive signs.
Chapter 6 looks at the falling domestic demand, and the contribution of each market segment to that fall. The impact of coal-fired power generation closures and the timing is considered in the gas profiles. We are already seeing changes with the deferral of the closure of the Eraring coal-fired power station, which is a significant contribution to lower gas demand.
The carbon impact of the gas outlook is considered in Chapter 8. Using our detailed production profiles, Scope 1 and 2 emissions are estimated. This with the estimated costs of carbon are important considerations for long-term planning.
Chapter 9 is where the demand and supply profiles come together, and we discuss where additional gas is required and options for accessing it. No single answer – ‘muddling through’ is where we are.
Gas prices with five scenarios for each of the four gas hubs are explored in Chapter 10. The trend is to LNG net back prices, but variations are relatively wide.
With all this uncertainty, we identify signposts in Chapter 11, to watch out for on the journey. This will help with further scenario modelling by users of this report.
Scope and approach:
Like all EnergyQuest reports, this report is grounded in data-led, independent analysis. EnergyQuest does not have any commercial or political agendas to push. Nor does the report make any heroic assumptions about how the current energy system might be or should be transformed. Rather, the report projects future gas demand and supply given the resource base and current demand trends with clearly explained assumptions underlying scenarios for how they may evolve.
Report details:
The report is provided in a PDF format with over 300 pages of analysis. The analysis is supported by an Excel file with detailed models and data. High resolution copies of maps are available upon request.