Media Release
25 October 2026
Release of East Coast Gas Outlook 2026
EnergyQuest has released its eighth annual East Coast Gas Outlook. The 384 page report includes the first detailed modelling of the impact of the Domestic Gas Reservation Bill tabled by the government on 14 October 2026. The report is a detailed and analytical look at gas supply, demand, infrastructure and regulation for the east coast and Northern Territory gas market.
The report notes that domestic gas spot prices have averaged $10.08/GJ for 2026 to the end of September – down 21% from 2025, and the lowest since 2021.
Despite these low prices, domestic gas demand continued to decline in 2025 to 505 PJ, down 4.6% compared to 2024 at 529 PJ, and down 18.4% compared to 2021 at 618 PJ.
Even with the decline in domestic gas demand, gas supply modelling shows comparatively faster long-term decline of supply, and particularly in the legacy basins (Gippsland, Cooper and Otway).
Moreover, Mr Wilkinson noted that “there is a critical future gas supply reliance on unsanctioned Narrabri coal seam gas, more Queensland coal seam gas going south, Beetaloo shale gas in the Northern Territory, and supply from additional gas that has yet to be discovered or proven up – a high-risk position to work through, particularly as a Base Case”.
The Domestic Gas Reservation Bill was introduced in Parliament on 14 October 2026, with an objective to oversupply the gas market by 10%, using a Domestic Supply Obligation which reserves up to 20% of LNG volumes. Assuming the Minister does exempt the Queensland foundation LNG contracts (as has been stated) which run to the mid-2030s, then EnergyQuest modelling finds that little gas is reserved and the risk of shortfalls remains, particularly on peak demand days.
“After 2035, if LNG producers are compelled to fill domestic supply shortfalls, and no additional gas fields are developed, then this may require more than 40% of LNG exports to be reserved for domestic supply, which is unlikely to be a realistic expectation.”
Mr Wilkinson said “The 20% maximum Domestic Supply Obligation will not ensure domestic supply after the mid-2030s, and makes no material difference before then. It is the wrong tool for the job”
“A better way forward is with less market intervention, a workable gas reservation scheme modelled on WA’s proven approach, and allowing prices to signal market constraints.”
Attributions and Media Contact:
Rick Wilkinson
Chief Executive Officer
EnergyQuest
Contact: +61 (0) 7 3870 9152
Information about EnergyQuest’s East Coast Gas Outlook 2026 is available by clicking here.