EnergyQuest Australian LNG Monthly June 2021

EnergyQuest has just released its Australian LNG Monthly for June 2021. Some of the highlights are:

  • Australia exported 77.2 Mt of LNG in the 12 months to 30 June 2021, less than the 79.5 Mt in FY 2020. China overtook Japan as Australia’s top export destination in FY 2021 with 29.8 Mt.
  • Western Australian LNG production was down by 5% on FY 2020 to 45.1 Mt and the Northern Territory was down, by 6% to 8.8 Mt. The east coast had record production in of 23.3 Mt, up 4% from FY 2020.
  • EnergyQuest forecasts FY 2022 LNG exports of 80 Mt and a A$17 billion increase in LNG export revenue.
  • While average oil prices in FY 2021 were similar to the previous year, spot LNG prices averaged 57% higher than a year earlier. However, notwithstanding the increase in the JKM and increased Gladstone exports, the average Wallumbilla price in FY2021 was $6.10/GJ, steady on $6.02/GJ in FY 2020.
  • East coast spot prices have spiked in July, due to cold weather, high international prices  and outages at Longford and in coal-fired power generation rather than LNG exports.
  • Australian LNG projects shipped 5.85 million tonnes (Mt) (85 cargoes) in June, slightly higher than the 5.82 Mt (84 cargoes) in May.
  • JKM spot LNG futures steadily increased during June from US$10.98/MMBtu on 1 June (for July deliveries) to a high for the month of US$13.39/MMBtu on 30 June (for August deliveries).
  • West Coast shipments increased to 4.0 Mt in June (3.8 Mt in May). East coast shipments decreased to 1.8 Mt.
  • Queensland exported gas to the other states in June, with flows in a westerly direction for the entire month. Net gas flows from Queensland to other states were 3.5 PJ in June.
  • Queensland short-term domestic gas prices in June were much higher averaging $10.31/GJ ($7.32/GJ in May) at Wallumbilla and $10.80 /GJ ($7.56/GJ) in Brisbane, compared to those in May.
  • Southern short-term domestic gas prices in June were also significantly higher compared to those in May averaging $11.06/GJ ($7.51/GJ) in Sydney, $11.41/GJ ($7.48/GJ) in Adelaide and $9.36/GJ ($6.33/GJ) in Victoria
  • East coast electricity demand continues to grow, up by 2.9% in June compared with a year earlier. Power generation in June from coal was a record low for this time of year, with generation down by 681 GWh. Coal’s share of NEM generation was only 63%, down from 68% a year earlier, with lower generation in Queensland and Victoria following issues at Callide and Yallourn. Gas generation was up by 303 GWh. Gas-fired generation increased in Queensland, NSW and Victoria compared to May, and increased its overall share of the market to 10%. Gas had a 15% share in Queensland and 46% in South Australia.

Information about the EnergyQuest Australian LNG Monthly is available by clicking here.