Overview:
EnergyQuest’s West Coast Gas Outlook 2026 brings together the most comprehensive data, forecasts, and analysis available on the Western Australia domestic gas market.
This 274-page report examines the historical, current, and potential future state of a market which has some major challenges ahead.
The report shows increasing demand, large gas users with few options other than to continue to use natural gas. Declining supply from domestic only producers are combining to produce tight market conditions and potential shortfalls into the 2030s.
As a result, the future WA domestic gas market may look like the past when LNG supplied a higher proportion of export volumes to the market.
Prices, however, are unlikely to return to historical levels. We identify and quantify a market premium that has existed since 2023 when the market tightened and spot prices peaked. There is an additional premium for firm longer term supply. Detailed price forecasts based on our WA experience and market intelligence give a long term, independent outlook for planning and scenario development, with forecasts based on a transparent and objective methodology.
We provide a bottom-up assessment of economics and supply from WA’s LNG and domestic gas projects, and an assessment of demand and the decarbonisation plans of WA’s large gas users to give a comprehensive supply/demand outlook to 2050 with all assumptions explained. Detailed price forecasts based on our WA experience and market intelligence gives a long term, independent outlook for planning and scenario development.
Our geological, project, and market analysis is overlayed with a deep understanding of the impact of government and politics on gas markets, providing a realistic assessment of future market dynamics and the potential for government intervention. We identify the developments and signposts that will require monitoring going forward and explore the options for industry participants.
Scope and approach:
Like all EnergyQuest reports, this report is grounded in data-led, independent analysis. EnergyQuest does not have any commercial or political agendas to push. Nor does the report make any heroic assumptions about how the current energy system might be or should be transformed. Rather, the report projects future gas demand and supply given the resource base and current demand trends with clearly explained assumptions underlying scenarios for how they may evolve.
Report details:
The report is provided in a PDF format with 274 pages of analysis. The analysis is supported by an Excel file with detailed models and data. High resolution copies of maps are available upon request.